Why the Gen Z Vote May Decide the 2024 Race
Students taking part in a protest against high college fees. Photo: Neil Dorgan
It’s roughly 10 months to the 2024 presidential election, but the race already looks like a nailbiter.
Both Republican and Democratic strategists, for example, express serious worries about their prospective candidates.
On paper, some political analysts say, it shouldn’t be close: Former President Donald Trump, in addition to being held liable for rape and sexual abuse, is facing 91 charges in four separate indictments, including grave accusations of attempting to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power after his 2020 loss. President Joe Biden, though now age 80, has a laundry list of achievements -- including a significant infrastructure bill (which means a passel of high-paying jobs), lowering drug prices and revitalizing America’s manufacturing base, with an emphasis on clean energy.
Yet Democratic strategists bemoan not only Biden’s age but the deep malaise he appears to trigger in Democratic voters. His accomplishments have gained little traction. MAGA voters loudly condemn his spread of “Socialism.” Meanwhile, progressives are now protesting his support of Israel in Gaza and harsh border policies. Democrats’ big fear is that the rabid passion and fierce loyalty Trump inspires in his base could make all the difference.
What I keep citing, however, is a remarkable Washington Post opinion piece, “2024 Presidential Race won’t be a Trump-Biden replay. You can thank Gen Z for that.” written by Celinda Lake and Mark Heller back in July.
They offer stunning data: 52 million more Gen Z voters will be voting in 2024, compared to 2016. Close to half are people of color, as opposed to the Baby Boomers, who are 72 percent White. And this younger cohort has demonstrated strong progressive attitudes.
Here’s how Lake and Heller got there: Every year, roughly 4 million Americans turn 18 and become eligible to vote. That translates into 32 million new young voters between Trump’s 2016 electoral victory and now. At the same time, because 2.5 million older Americans die each year, as many as 20 million older voters could be off the rolls over these eight years.
Unlike past younger cohorts, Gen Z votes. Its turnout has been 25 percent higher than older generations at the same age. They even register to vote at a higher rate.
Gen Z also displays far more progressive attitudes – particularly when it comes to abortion rights and and environmental issues. So they vote for Democrats, who support this. We’ve all seen how a woman’s right to choose prevails at the ballot box in even the most conservative of states.
Here’s just one example that Lake and Heller present. It’s about Michigan’s 2022 abortion referendum:
[It] brought youth midterm turnout to 49 percent — and 69 percent of voters younger than 30 voted to put abortion rights protections in the state constitution compared with just 52 percent of voters 30 and older. Michigan voters elected Democratic majorities in both state houses for the first time in years, and reelected their Democratic governor, attorney general and secretary of state.
Granted, many recent reported pieces now examine young voters’ ever-increasing alienation over Biden’s policies in the Middle East and along the Southern border. Young voters also talk about being disillusioned by the president’s inability to fix the student college debt crisis as promised -- though Congress blocked his path. Some talk about voting for a third-party candidate. Over the 10 months until the election, however, the lessons learned from Jill Stein’s 2000 Green Party candidacy are likely to be rehashed.
It has now become routine to question polling results. The methodology might seem antiquated or unreliable. But Celinda Lake, a highly respected pollster (who wrote many columns for me when I was The Los Angeles Times Sunday “Opinion” Editor), is here presenting actuarial facts. This big shift in voter age is real. Historically, younger voters do lean left.
We will now watch how this all plays out.